How does it work?
What is the
World Cup Competition experiment?
This is a study to be carried out at the World Cup in Qatar 2022.
In it, participants will assign their probabilities of the outcomes of the
different matches and a program will compare these probabilities with each
other and activate a virtual bet when two predictions are incompatible.
The distinctive feature of this experiment is that probabilities
asigned to an outcome may be intervals. That is, you may say that the
probability of victory of a team is between 0.5 and 0.6.
The experiment revisits the one conducted in 1982 by Peter Walley
and in 2014 by Erik Quaeghebeur, Chris Wesseling, Emma Beauxis-Aussalet, Teresa
Piovesan, and Tom Sterkenburg.
What should I do to participate?
To
participate, you must register on this website, entering the required personal
data. Register here! Registration is open form November 9 to November 15,
2022.
How do I make my predictions?
You must access the "Bet" section and click on the match (or matches) where you would like to assess your probabilities. Access the "Bet" section here!
IMPORTANT: The probabilities must be a number between 0 and 1. A number close to 0 will indicate that the event is unlikely, while a number close to 1 will denote that the event is very likely. Once in the form, you must fill in a drop-down menu and three boxes:
1. In the drop-down menu we must choose the match we want to bet on.
2. The first box corresponds to the interval of probability of victory of the local team. That is, an interval whose lower limit corresponds to the minimum probability of victory of the home team and whose upper limit corresponds to the maximum probability of victory of the home team.
3. The second box corresponds to the draw probability interval. That is, an interval whose lower limit corresponds to the minimum probability of a sraw and whose upper limit corresponds to the maximum probability of a draw.
4. The third box corresponds to the interval of probability of victory of the away team. That is, an interval whose lower limit corresponds to the minimum probability of victory of the away team and whose upper limit corresponds to the maximum probability of victory of the away team.
It is understood that the Home team is the first team that appears in the description of the game, and that the Away team is the one to appear in the second place.
An email will also be requested. You must enter the one you have registered on the web.
To insert the intervals, we must enter them between brackets "[ ]", with the point "." separating the integer part from the decimal part, the comma "," separating the upper and lower limit of the interval and NO SPACES.
For example, if in the Qatar-Ecuador match I
consider that the probability of victory of Qatar is between 0 and 0.2, the
draw between 0.1 and 0.5 and the defeat between 0.5 and 0.9, I should introduce:
What if I don’t want to use intervals?
You just have to set the lower limit
equal to the upper limit. For example, if in the Qatar-Ecuador you consider that
P(Victory)=0.2, P(Draw)=0.3 and P(Defeat)=0.5, you should enter:
When is a bet activated?
A bet is activated between two players when their predictions for some outcome of a match are disjoint intervals.
For example, in the Qatar-Ecuador match, if George
says Ecuador’s probability of victory is between 0.3 and 0.4 and Henry says it
is between 0.6 and 0.7, a bet between them would be activated.
However, if George gives a probability of victory of Qatar between 0.2 and
0.3 and Henry gives a probability between 0.25 and 0.35, the bet would not be activated, because the intervals have some point in common.
What happens when a bet is activated?
The two players involved the bet will exchange points based on the result. The amount
depends on the distance between the intervals they have allocated and the
midpoint between them, and that amount goes to the player who has assigned more
probability to that result.
For example, if George gives Ecuador’s
[0.3,0.4] chance of victory and Henry gives Ecuador’s [0.6,0.7] chance of
victory, the amount at stake is
dist× midpoint ,
where:
dist
the distance between the upper limit of George and the lower limit of Henry (in
our case 0.2, since 0.6-0.4=0.2); and
midpoint the midpoint between the upper limit
of George and the lower limit of Henry (in our case 0.5, since
(0.4+0.6)/2=0.5).
Thus, the amount at stake is 0.1. Given that Henry has more confidence in
Ecuador’s victory, there are two possible scenarios:
-If Ecuador wins, Henry increases his score by 0.1 and George decreases it
by 0.1.
-If Ecuador does NOT win, Henry decreases his score by 0.1 and George
increases it by 0.1.
How many bets are activated?
As many as possible. In each match, we will compare the predictions of the
probability of Victory/Draw/Defeat between each pair of players, and a bet
between two players will be activated for an outcome when their intervals for
that result have no points in common. Thus, we may activate a bet for only one of the three outcomes of the match, for two, for the three or for none of them; it will depend on each case.
For example, suppose that in the Qatar-Ecuador match
the assessments are:
|
|
Victory |
Draw |
Defeat |
|
George |
[0,0.1] |
[0.2,0.7] |
[0.3,0.4] |
|
Henry |
[0,0.3] |
[0.1,0.3] |
[0.6,0.7] |
|
Laura |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
The following bets would be activated:
-George and Henry have an active bet on the Defeat of Qatar, worth
0.2*0.5=0.1.
-Henry and Laura have an active bet on Draw of 0.1*0.35=0.035 and an
active bet on defeat of 0.2*0.5=0.1.
-George and Laura have an active bet on Victory, worth
0.1*0.15=0.015.
Do I have to bet on all matches?
NO, you can participate in any games you want. If you do not participate in
a match, no bet will be activated in that match against any other participant,
so your score will not change.
How long can I give my prediction for a match?
Once you have registered in the experiment, you can bet on any match until 2 hours before its start. If you bet several times on the same match, only the last bet will be taken into account.
What
about the knockout stage?
In the knockout stage, you should predict the result AT THE END OF THE NORMAL PLAYING TIME. That is, you should give the interval probabilities for Victory of the Home Team, Draw and Victory of the Away Team AT THE END OF THE 90 MINUTES. For instance, if Team 1 and Team 2 draw at the end of the second half, no matter who wins in the extra time or in the penalty shoot-out, the valid result shall be Draw. If Team 1 beats Team 2 at the end of the first 90 minutes, the valid result would be Victory of the Home Team. And if Team 2 beats Team 1 at the end of the first 90 minutes, the valid result would be Victory of the Away Team.
Do I have to pay something to participate?
NO, the game is totally free.
Are there prizes for the winners?
Indeed! As a gesture of gratitude for helping me and participating in the project, the top three players, once the tournament is over, will receive Amazon gift cards worth 50, 40 and 30 euros, respectively.
You can check the overall ranking to see where you are and what your score
is (updated daily). Check the ranking here!